Jobless Numbers? What Jobless Numbers?
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Jobless Numbers? What Jobless Numbers?
By Steve Multer
Aug. 21, 2010
I just got home from six weeks in France. Before you click on to something else allow me to explain and clarify. I don’t say this to brag, I say it because I’m unemployed and bored. Back with me now? Cool. In my line of work June comes to an end and so does my income for a nerve-wracking and gulp-inducing two months. It didn’t used to be this way, in fact there was a time in my life where the July and August calendars could promise at least 3-4 good paying contractor jobs that wouldn’t allow consideration of such time out of the loop. Today things have changed a tad. Today my options are ‘sit around on my butt here’ or ‘sit around on my butt there.’ France has better pastry so I choose there, thank you very much.
My family is a part of Home Exchange, meaning we internet date with others trying to pay their mortgages as well and working feverishly not to lose a lifestyle they came to know and love from 1995-2005. We’re a desperate but happy bunch. Occasionally we get lucky and ‘hook up,’ but in a far more productive manner and with far less risk of contracting an infectious disease. A family somewhere else – say, France – wants to visit Chicago and we want to visit somewhere else – say, France. We align dates and flight times then they live in our home while we live in theirs; we even swap cars which sounds tricky but actually requires much less of a delicate touch then other types of swapping. Toss in plane tix paid for with frequent flier miles (the corporate speaker’s numero uno perk) and you’ve got yourself a darned cheap six week French getaway with the wife and kids.
But I still have to pay the mortgage on the place our exchange family is sleeping in. And I still have to buy three squares for my wife and kids, not to mention a bare bones minimum of 2 pastries per day plus an ice cream every other as negotiated with startling insistence by my too-smart-for-her-own-damn-good 4-year old (chick loves her Berthillion and I can’t deny, their pistachio kills.) And this brings me to my point; even doing it for free it still costs too much because – remember how this whole thing started? – I’m unemployed!
So we mange within reason. Easier to do in certain residential and lesser-touristed areas and virtually impossible to do within 87 blocks of The Louvre. But what always astonishes me is the number of diners happily jamming each and every bistro or salon de thé across the city from June through August. Seriously, the whole damn town is packed! Just try walking in the door of the venerable Pierre Herme in the 6th. Go on, I’ll wait, you’re going to be in there awhile, just you and three dozen drooling tourists and locals desperate for a lemon tart or tower of $125 chocolate cake. One night I tried to make a reservation at a café described by the mother in our exchange family as “ah, c’est tres belle!” and was informed they were booked the next two weeks out. Come on, two weeks? By whom?! Clearly a crop of people with jobs and a lot more money than me.
Really want to see how bad the economy has turned? Join the mobs who pack department stores like Galleries Lafayette or Au Bon Marche or Printemps shelling out ninety bucks for a t-shirt with a picture of a schnauzer on it or several thousand for the latest clutch made of magenta rhinoceros leather. You can barely move down an aisle, and when you finally do make it to the cash register you can bet on a 45-minute wait before the child behind the counter unceremoniously mashes your Armani into a rumpled plastic sack.
So who’s spending all these Euros if the job market is so lousy and the outlook for our world economy is so terrifying? Who can afford such luxuries as Gucci or Nespresso – or a noodle – if we’re all teetering on the edge of financial ruin? Who are these throngs filling the streets, bars, and shops of Paris? Here’s a hint; one of them wrote this and one of them is reading it.
Gloom and doom is human nature. We hear the latest headline statistics on home sales and, like Macaulay Culkin, we look in the mirror, grab our hair, and shriek. Then we go for a sandwich. Even when the chips are down we forget to include the number of years the chips were up and how many of them we ate or bet. And unemployment numbers only tell one half of the story – the bad half. Because if ‘unemployment’ is at 10% then ‘employment is at 90%.’ Interesting thing but if 90% of the world is still out there buying sneakers and Starbucks then how bad off are we really? The answer is, not as bad as we might think. The proof was walking around Paris with me just a few days ago.
Industries balance for realistic business expectations. So while it appears that stock values control the day-to-day realities we can watch proof of the opposite going on all around us. Markets are humming as fingers are drumming. A couple of examples.
Airlines cut back on the number of flights to Europe each summer and then double the price for each ticket to create a demand in the market. Even if the number of people flying drops by 30% the expense ratio and filled seat percentage increases twice that number. Hence a balance in the market. Would they prefer to fly twice as many planes at 75% capacity than half as many at peak capacity? Of course they would, but it’s not realistic in today’s crunch times. So the industry holds steady while the overall stock flatlines and the major players prep themselves for a return to better days.
The same phenomenon is visible throughout Paris every August. Locals and business owners shut their doors for a holiday, off to the south for sunstroke and a fine Bordeaux. Everyone says, “Paris is empty in August.” Yeah, right. Tell that to the young socialites jamming Indiana Café from noon to midnight each day on Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré. It’s true you can find entire neighborhoods where every shop is shuttered with a simple hand-scrawled sign taped to the door advertising the precise dates of their owners returns. But head over to the Champs Elysees and it’s business as usual, with lines of ladies eagerly awaiting their turn to enter the hallowed halls of Longchamps. Where’s the bad economy?
But it’s not necessarily a bad economy, merely a rebalanced one. Less shops open equals more shops filled. And while a street vendor selling falafel here may be whooping it up in Antibes his buddy up the road is tending to a line of seven hungry tourists (ask for the spicy sauce, it rocks!) So here we are, my little family of four, spending money we’re not earning in order to keep hold of a life we’ve come to expect and dearly love. Our shekels help that falafel vendor keep his doors open, as does his friend who checked out for the month. Our economy has changed yet at the moment, despite the fact we’re part of the 10%, come September we’re back in the 90% category. Our economy isn’t bad, it’s simply rebalanced.
People spend money, including money they don’t have, on the things they feel are important or that they believe improve the quality and quantity of their lives. The same goes for businesses. Conducting business in a down economy isn’t foolish if the product you offer has innate value and a substantive impact on both a buyer and his position. Whether it’s a good burger down the block, a six week trip to Paris, or a new marketing campaign, the ultimate reason for investment is always the same; it’s worth it.
For a year now I’ve heard nothing but talk talk talk about the death of the trade show industry and the inability or unwillingness of corporations to display at or attend these conferences. And every year I see the investments continue. I continue to speak as a professional to groups of people looking for the next great thing even if they can’t afford the current great thing. I see booths get smaller but smarter, the events tighter but more strategically focused. More balanced. The spending hasn’t stopped and the tables are still full, but they’re filled in a different way than ever before. Just like our economy.
Recently we saw a Convention 2020 Survey conducted by Fast Future Research that described how hyper competition is driving industry transformation and how new business models, radical price incentives, and deep personalization will shape the industry landscape into 2020. I found that interesting but not surprising; money’s tight, technologies change, and those who can adapt and advance will fare best. What the survey didn’t comment on was the effects these changes within this so-called Bad Economy are having on the market as a whole. Are we all doomed to lose the golden opportunity for spending our budgets on solid face-to-face contact and solid experiential payoff?
Nope. ICCA CEO Mark Sirk summed it up perfectly by saying, “Demand for live events is expected to hold strong out to 2020, but to attract customers will require significant innovation in meeting format.” That’s balance for you. Bad economy or different economy?
That’s the real question we’re all facing. The economy is down, but it’s also altered and requires new approaches and adaptations. The down is tough, the different is an opportunity. While others decry the inability to live their lives as they’d wish or tell us that the well has finally run dry, you can choose to view the new market realities as a chance to reset the expectation. Where do you start?
Make a connection for a home exchange, or offer a services swap with your associate whose family owns a cabin in the Ozarks. You can afford this year’s vacation if you get creative and optimistic. Skip the hip eating establishment and seek out the hot new chef showcasing her art off the beaten track and at half the price. Ask the teenager sleeping in the room next to yours what the cool kids are wearing then buy the faded original Star Wars tee for $2 at Salvation Army rather than the overpriced couture with the schnauzer appliqué.
Mostly, look around at those crowds packing the tables every weekend in your home town. There’s your economy, and it doesn’t look all that bad. 90% of the population can still afford something, and they’re all out there spending on that something right now. So go meet them, be one of them. I don’t know about you but I prefer to live among those making the world look normal and busy. The ones who aren’t just grateful to have work but who helped make sure I couldn’t reserve a table at that oh so lovely café this summer. Hmph, tourists!
© 2010 | Steve Multer | SKM Creative
